S&P 500 Tech Stocks Down 20%+ Where Insiders Are Buying
We screened S&P 500 tech names down at least 20% over the past year where insiders have been net buyers, then layered in institutional share accumulation and options sentiment to see where smart money is actually positioned.
With the broader tech selloff, we screened for S&P 500 tech names down at least 20% over the past year, where insiders have been net buyers. Then layered in institutional share accumulation and options sentiment to see where smart money is actually positioned.
Table 1. S&P 500 technology stocks down 20%+ over the past 12 months with net insider buying, Q4 2025 data.
| Symbol | Company | 1Y Change | Insider Buy/Sell | Inst Share Change % | Put/Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPQ | HP Inc. | -35.5% | 220x | 5.2% | 1.47 |
| ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | -22.0% | 216x | -2.6% | 1.15 |
| CTSH | Cognizant | -21.3% | 15x | 0.3% | 3.35 |
| FISV | Fiserv | -71.0% | 9x | n/a | n/a |
| PAYC | Paycom | -32.9% | 5.4x | -0.6% | 1.15 |
| IT | Gartner | -64.6% | 4.3x | 2.1% | 0.55 |
| NOW | ServiceNow | -30.6% | 1.8x | 80.1% | 1.01 |
| ADBE | Adobe | -36.7% | 1.8x | 1.1% | 1.11 |
| CRM | Salesforce | -29.6% | 1.6x | 6.1% | 0.9 |
| ACN | Accenture | -37.4% | 1.4x | 2.2% | 0.85 |
Column definitions:
- Insider Buy/Sell: ratio of shares acquired vs disposed by directors and officers in the most recent quarter. A value above 1 means insiders bought more than they sold, and a higher number indicates stronger conviction.
- Inst Share Change %: quarter-on-quarter change in total shares held by 13F institutional filers. Positive means institutions accumulated more shares than they sold; negative means net distribution.
- Put/Call: ratio of put to call options held by institutions. Below 1 means more calls than puts (bullish); above 1 means more puts (hedging or bearish).
A few things that stand out:
The cleanest overall picture is IT, ACN, ADBE, and CRM: all four show insider buying, positive institutional share accumulation, and put/call below 1. Of the ten names, these are the only ones where all three columns point in the same direction. IT has the most bullish options positioning of the group at 0.55.
Note that these four names aren't all the same story: ADBE and CRM sold off on AI disruption fears to the SaaS model, while IT and ACN dropped on government spending cuts and IT budget compression, so the shared accumulation signal is coming from four independent selloffs.
HPQ and ZBRA have the biggest insider buy ratios on the list, but institutions are hedging heavily on both (put/call above 1.1), and ZBRA is actually seeing share count decline. The insider buying looks more like management defending the stock than genuine conviction.
PAYC is the contradiction: 5.4x insider ratio is strong, but institutions are trimming, and the put/call is above 1.0. Insiders and institutions are pointing in opposite directions.
CTSH has a decent insider ratio, but a put/call of 3.35 is the most bearish options positioning on the list by a wide margin.
Fundamental Quality Check
Smart money signals tell you where conviction is accumulating. Fundamentals tell you whether that conviction is warranted. We cross-referenced each stock against four additional data points using our 5D framework:
- Business quality score: a composite proprietary rating (1–5) covering return on equity, profit margins, free cash flow generation, and revenue growth consistency. A high score means the business has historically been able to compound value; a low score means the insider buying may be catching a falling knife rather than a mispriced compounder.
- Peer score relative to sector peers: the same quality metrics benchmarked against comparable companies in the same sector. A stock can look mediocre in isolation but strong relative to its peers, or vice versa. This helps separate genuine quality from sector-wide mediocrity.
- DCF intrinsic value upside: a discounted cash flow model estimating the gap between current price and intrinsic value. We bucket this into three categories: priced below the model's estimate, in line with it, and priced above it.
- Analyst sentiment: Wall Street consensus normalised to a 1–5 scale, where 5 is strong buy and 1 is strong sell. We include this not because analyst consensus is alpha but because a divergence between analyst sentiment and smart money positioning is often more interesting than either signal alone.
Table 2. Fundamental quality scores and valuation context for screened names. Business Quality and Peer scores are proprietary Stockoscope ratings (1–5). DCF classification based on modelled upside/downside vs current price. Analyst Sentiment reflects consensus rating normalised to a 1–5 scale.
| Symbol | Quality Score | Peer Score | DCF Valuation | Analyst Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | 4.11 | 4.19 | Below model estimate | 3.4 |
| PAYC | 3.94 | 3.43 | Below model estimate | 3.1 |
| NOW | 3.28 | 3.18 | Above model estimate | 4.0 |
| FISV | 3.27 | 2.75 | Below model estimate | 3.2 |
| ACN | 3.25 | 3.25 | Below model estimate | 3.8 |
| IT | 3.18 | 2.76 | Below model estimate | 2.9 |
| CTSH | 3.16 | 3.28 | Below model estimate | 3.8 |
| CRM | 3.11 | 3.17 | Above model estimate | 3.7 |
| HPQ | 2.70 | 2.63 | Below model estimate | 3.0 |
| ZBRA | 2.71 | 2.39 | In line with estimate | 3.9 |
What the Fundamentals Reveal
ADBE scores highest on fundamentals among the list: highest business quality score, highest peer ranking, and priced below the model's estimate on DCF. That combination of strong quality and a below-model price is the pattern we called the crossover signal. The selloff may be justified if AI erodes the creative tools market, but the fundamentals as they stand today don't show it yet. Analyst sentiment is low after the selloff.
PAYC ranks second on quality despite weaker smart money signals, which suggests the market may be pricing in AI disruption risks the fundamentals do not yet support.
Interestingly, despite significant drops, NOW and CRM still appear above the model's estimate on DCF, meaning even at current beaten-down prices they still screen above the model's estimate. Notably NOW carries the highest analyst sentiment on the list at 4.0, a divergence from the valuation model that is worth treating with caution.
ACN is the most consistent name on the list: investment quality, peer score, and analyst sentiment all sitting at exactly 3.25 and 3.8 respectively, no outliers in any direction. Nothing jumps out as exceptional but nothing is broken either.
IT combines the best of both worlds: cleanest options signal in the group, recovering institutional positioning, strong insider buying, and priced below the model's estimate on DCF. However, business quality and peer score is middle-of-the-road and the analyst sentiment is weak.
CTSH is the fundamental contradiction on the list. On fundamentals alone it looks like a solid business at a reasonable price, which we broke down separately in Cognizant Through the Value Lens. The 3.35 put/call is the one thing that doesn't fit: either institutions are heavily hedging a position they otherwise like, or there is something in the near-term outlook that the fundamentals have not yet captured.
HPQ and ZBRA have the weakest fundamentals in the group, both scoring below 2.8 on business quality. That tempers the enthusiasm from their high insider buy ratios.
This Is Not a Buy List
This is a starting point for further research, not a buy list. Smart money signals tell you where conviction is accumulating but they do not tell you when the thesis plays out or whether the fears driving the selloff are ultimately correct.
When you layer fundamentals on top of the smart money signals, the list narrows considerably. IT, ADBE, and ACN are the stocks where the case is most coherent across all dimensions: insider buying, institutional positioning, options sentiment, valuation, and underlying business quality. CRM fits the same pattern on smart money signals but the DCF says it is still not cheap, so the margin of safety is thinner. CTSH deserves a look despite the alarming options data: strong fundamentals and positive institutional flow suggest the put buying may reflect hedging rather than informed bearishness, though the 3.35 put/call is too elevated to ignore.
You can explore the full Holdings Analysis, including insider transactions, institutional flows, and options positioning, for any of these stocks on our platform: ADBE · CRM · IT · ACN · CTSH · NOW · PAYC · HPQ · ZBRA · FISV
This article was originally published on X on 7 March 2026. All data, prices, and results reflect information available at the time of publication. We have retained the original publication date on this platform for consistency.
Data sourced from SEC 13F filings and insider trading disclosures via Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), aggregated and screened using the Stockoscope SQL database. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past smart money positioning is not indicative of future price performance. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.